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Political Risk Atlas 2014

Maybe that is due to the fact that the Arab-Israeli conflict has dominated much of the discussions about the area over the past fifty years.


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Insufficient attention has therefore been devoted to other important issues that may not be quite as eye-catching or newsworthy. This is exactly what the book is aiming to offer.

Instability and Conflict in the Middle East

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Economic (In)security and Economic Integration in the Middle East

FAQ Policy. About this book The present book is about instability and conflict in the Middle East at a time when many still believe that peace between the Arabs and Israel will bring an end to all problems in the region. Show all. This time around, instability in the Middle East is far more severe and widespread. Perhaps the most important reason is that, unlike in the past, the turmoil in the Middle East has not caused a supply shock.

Even in the parts of Iraq now controlled by the Islamic State, oil production continues, with output smuggled and sold in foreign markets. Indeed, there is a global glut of oil. Moreover, South America holds vast hydrocarbon reserves, from Colombia all the way to Argentina, as does East Africa, from Kenya all the way to Mozambique.

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With the US on the way to achieving energy independence, there is a risk that America and its western allies will consider the Middle East less strategically important. That belief is wishful thinking: a burning Middle East can destabilise the world in many ways.


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First, some of these conflicts may yet lead to an actual supply disruption, as in , , and Second, civil wars that turn millions of people into refugees will destabilise Europe economically and socially, which is bound to hit the global economy hard. And the economies and societies of frontline states such as Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, already under severe stress from absorbing millions of such refugees, face even greater risks.

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Third, prolonged misery and hopelessness for millions of Arab young people will create a new generation of desperate jihadists who blame the west for their despair. Some will undoubtedly find their way to Europe and the US and stage terrorist attacks. Such a choice would haunt the US and Europe — and thus the global economy — for decades to come. Global economy Oil Commodities Economics comment.

Five reasons the Middle East is in crisis - Newsnight